After a month-long Olympic break, the WNBA season is back in full swing. We have three games on tap for Friday night, so let’s check out the top WNBA picks and bets. Our best bets tonight feature Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever facing the Phoenix Mercury. Plus, we have a pick in the Sun/Wings matchup. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds.
Enjoy these top WNBA predictions and betting picks!
- Consensus WNBA Odds
- WNBA Matchups
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever (-3) €“ O/U 173.5 (-110/-110)
It’s been almost a month since we’ve seen Caitlin Clark on a basketball court amid the Olympic break. Friday night gives us Clark and the Indiana Fever hosting the Phoenix Mercury in what lines up to be a tight matchup.
Indiana went through a brutal schedule to begin the year, playing 11 games in 20 days and going 2-9 straight-up in that stretch. The next month, though, saw the Fever get stronger and better ahead of the break. They are 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS over the past 13 games. In that stretch, Indiana averaged 86.0 PPG and shot a league-high 48% from the field.
Many of the Fever’s key players started to hit their strides before the break. Clark was averaging 20.3 PPG and 12.5 APG over the previous six games, becoming a better facilitator. Over the past 13 games, Kelsey Mitchell (19.2 PPG, 40.2% from three) and Aliyah Boston (17.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG) have both stepped up as well. This is a much more cohesive team after going through early-season growing pains.
The Fever’s extended time off should also benefit the young, up-and-coming squad. That especially pertains to Clark, who was basically playing non-stop since the beginning of her senior college season at Iowa. The long layoff matters more for this squad than others around the WNBA.
On that note, the Mercury are in a unique position as it pertains to this month-long break. Their three best players €“ Kahleah Copper, Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi €“ all just competed for Team USA in the Olympics. There may be some tired legs there, considering all three are veterans. Plus, the Mercury are on the second leg of a road back-to-back after playing last night in Chicago.
Phoenix also was very up-and-down over the previous month of games before the break. The Mercury were 5-5 SU & ATS over the past 10 games before resuming play on Thursday. If you look at the results closer, though, their wins in that stretch only came against the league’s worst teams (Dallas, Los Angeles, Washington). Meanwhile, they went 0-4 ATS as underdogs in that span and lost twice to Indiana €“ by 9 and 6 points.
WNBA Pick: Indiana Fever -3 (-112)
Connecticut Sun (-5.5) at Dallas Wings €“ O/U 161 (-110/-110)
Friday’s late-night WNBA game features the Dallas Wings hosting the Connecticut Sun. This is a mismatch in multiple ways with the Sun boasting the league’s second-best winning percentage (.750) while the Wings are tied for the worst record in the first half (6-19). Let’s break down how to bet this one.
Connecticut should control the flow of this game to secure the win coming out of the Olympic break. Specifically, the Sun’s defense and slower pace will hold Dallas in check and keep this lower-scoring. The Sun are allowing a league-low 72.5 PPG while also playing at the slowest tempo in the WNBA. They’re allowing the least amount of made field goals and three-pointers per game (26.3 and 6.0, respectively) and are holding opponents to 30.5% from three-point range (2nd in WNBA).
The Sun’s tight defense will set the tone on the road here. Their style of play has made the Under very profitable in recent games. In fact, the Under is 8-4 in Connecticut’s past 12 contests before the break. Coming out of the month-long layoff, expect the defense and slower play to help the Under hit again.
To be clear, Dallas’ style of play does usually result in higher-scoring games. The Wings have the worst defense in the WNBA, allowing a league-high 89.7 PPG while being last in opposing field-goal percentage (46.7%). They also play at the third-quickest pace in the league. The Wings are thus 9-2 to the over in their past 11 games.
Still, we’re banking on the Sun’s defense to be more the most locked-in unit on either side to power the Under here. Plus, maybe we see a bit more defensive effort from Dallas with this being the first game in a month. It’s worth noting that Connecticut’s defense tends to travel well with the Under hitting in five of its last seven road games.
WNBA Pick: Under 161 Total Points (-110)
