Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction, Odds & Starting Pitchers

Jul 12, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Taj Bradley (45) throws a pitch against the Cleveland Guardians in the second inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve made our Rays vs Yankees prediction for Saturday’s AL East clashThe Yankees are -155 moneyline favorites, with the Rays at +130 underdogsRead below for our Rays vs Yankees betting preview, including prediction, odds, and starting pitchers for July 20th

We’ve got an enticing AL East clash on tap Saturday afternoon, as the Tampa Bay Rays square off against the New York Yankees in Game 2 of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium. First pitch for this divisional tilt is slated for 1:05 PM ET with coverage on MLB Network.

The Yanks took the series opener 6-1 on Friday, but I’m expecting the Rays to bounce back today. Tampa Bay checks in as a +130 underdog on the moneyline, while New York is laying -155 chalk. The total is set at a modest 8 runs, which feels high given the quality of starting pitching on both sides.

Here is our Yankees vs Rays prediction, featuring a betting odds breakdown and analysis of starting pitchers.

Yankees vs Rays Prediction Saturday

Friday was a forgettable night for the Rays, but they have an excellent chance to even this series on Saturday behind budding ace Taj Bradley. The 23-year-old righty has been a revelation for Tampa Bay this season, posting a sparkling 2.90 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first 12 big league starts.

Bradley has been especially sharp of late, allowing two runs or less in seven of his last eight outings. He’s the real deal, folks.

Taj Bradley's 5th & 6th Ks thru 4. pic.twitter.com/fM84qCcfGf

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 12, 2024

On the other side, the Yankees hand the ball to crafty lefty Nestor Cortes Jr. While Cortes was brilliant in winning the 2023 AL Cy Young award, he’s looked much more human this season, pitching to a 3.67 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Those numbers are still solid, but a far cry from his dominant campaign a year ago. Cortes has also struggled mightily against the Rays in his career, with Tampa hitters slashing a robust .269/.336/.500 against him in 134 at-bats.

The current Rays lineup, led by mashers like Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes, has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a 176 wRC+ since June 20th. For reference, 100 is considered league average. They should be able to get to Cortes in this spot.

While it’s always tough to fade the Yankees at home, I believe the Rays have the edge in starting pitching and are catching New York at the right time with several key bats on the IL.

Look for Bradley to spin another gem and Tampa to squeak out a low-scoring victory. Give me the Rays ML +130 as my best bet, and I’ll also take a shot with Under 8 at nearly even money.

Saturday MLB Picks:

Rays ML (+130)Under 8 Runs (-105)

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Yankees vs Rays Odds Saturday

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
TB Rays	+1.5 (-162)	+130	Over 8 (-115)
NY Yankees	-1.5 (+136)	-155	Under 8 (-105)

As touched on above, the Yankees are -155 moneyline favorites for Saturday’s contest, with the Rays coming back at +130. New York’s price implies a 60.8% win probability, while Tampa’s equates to a 43.5% chance of victory, according to the oddsmakers.

Personally, I believe this game is much closer to a coin flip, so I’m happy to back the Rays at plus-money in a spot where I make them only slight ‘dogs.

There’s no mystery as to why the Yanks are favored, as they boast the superior record (59-40 vs. 48-49 for the Rays), a powerful lineup anchored by Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and home-field advantage.

Friday Night Dub. #RepBX pic.twitter.com/Ec2mLnkcso

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) July 20, 2024

However, the savvy bettor knows that the money is often made going against the grain and fading public perception. The Rays are the value side in this matchup.

As for the total, eight runs is one of the lower numbers you’ll see for a game at hitter-haven Yankee Stadium. However, it’s warranted given the quality of starting pitching, particularly on the Tampa Bay side.

Bradley has electric stuff and Cortes, while not the same pitcher as 2023, is still capable of shutting down a lineup. The Under has also cashed in five of the nine head-to-head meetings between these clubs this season. I’m expecting another low-scoring affair on Saturday.

 

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Odds as of July 20, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Browse the best sports betting sites for Saturday baseball. 

Yankees vs Rays Starting Pitchers

We’ve already touched on the exploits of Rays starter Taj Bradley, but the rookie’s numbers are worth repeating. Through 12 starts, the 23-year-old righty boasts a 2.90 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and has fanned 85 batters in just 68.1 innings.

Opponents are hitting a paltry .208 against him. He’s quickly becoming one of the most electric young arms in baseball and gets a prime spot to showcase his talent on Saturday in the Bronx.

BradleyVSCortes

4-4	Record	4-8
2.90	ERA	3.67
OFF	xERA	OFF
1.11	WHIP	1.12
3.54	K/BB	5.00

For the Yankees, Nestor Cortes Jr. takes the hill looking to bounce back from a rough outing against these same Rays last week, when he permitted five runs on seven hits in just 4.1 innings.

The finesse lefty has seen his numbers dip across the board this season, with his ERA rising from 2.44 to 3.67 and his strikeout rate falling from 9.3 K/9 to 8.6. Cortes is still a solid starter, but he’s not the Cy Young-level arm we saw a season ago.

If you’re playing the MLB strikeout props, Bradley is the clear choice. The rookie has recorded eight-plus punchouts in four of his last seven starts. Meanwhile, Cortes has hit that number just three times all year. Hammer Bradley’s Over on any strikeout prop of 6.5 or lower.

Yankees vs Rays Injury Report

Injuries are part of the game, and both the Rays and Yankees are dealing with some big ones heading into Saturday’s contest.

For Tampa Bay, starting pitchers Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen remain on the IL, as do key relievers Richard Lovelady and Jacob Waguespack. While none of those arms were slated to pitch Saturday, it does leave Kevin Cash’s bullpen a bit thin.

#Rays have LH Jeffrey Springs starting on Saturday for AAA @DurhamBulls as he nears the end of his rehab, and RH Drew Rasmussen starting for Durham Sunday as he starts his rehab.

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) July 19, 2024

The Yankees have even more significant injury concerns, with 1B Anthony Rizzo, 1B J.D. Davis and DH Giancarlo Stanton all on the shelf. Losing the powerful bats of Rizzo and Stanton is a big blow to the New York lineup. The Yanks have gotten solid production from fill-ins like Jake Bauers and Dillon Toscano, but it’s not the same as having your stars in there.

Also, keep an eye on Yankees CF Harrison Bader, who exited Friday’s game early with an apparent injury. If Bader can’t go, the light-hitting Tiger Trent Grisham or rookie Dillon Toscano would likely man center field.

 

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