NFL Week 6 Rankings + Projections Update: Steelers, Saints Shaping Up

NFL Week 6 Rankings + Projections Update: Steelers, Saints Shaping Up

October 11, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 6 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by the Steelers, Saints, and Vikings, among others.

Want to maximize your edge in pools and betting this week? Our NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted for NFL Week 6.

NFL Week 6 Rankings Updates

Here are biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 6. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Division	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Pittsburgh	AFC North	7	5	2.5	3.9	1.4
New Orleans	NFC South	3	2	4.1	5.2	1.1
NY Jets	AFC East	29	23	-3.2	-2.1	1.1
Arizona	NFC West	31	31	-6.0	-5.1	0.9
Kansas City	AFC West	5	4	3.5	4.3	0.8

The Steelers saw a big jump after an easy 41-17 win over the defenseless Falcons. Going in, Pittsburgh was favored by just 3.3 points in the game according to our predictive ratings.

After a shaky start to the season, now 4-1 New Orleans had an easy time against Washington on Monday night (43-19) and as a result moved up one spot to No. 2 in our predictive rankings, jumping New England by a slight margin.

The Jets had the biggest rankings increase of the week, though, moving up six spots after demolishing the Broncos 34-16 in a game in which our ratings only favored NYJ by 1.6 points.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 6 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 6:

Team	Division	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Pittsburgh	AFC North	7.9	8.8	0.9
Arizona	NFC West	3.9	4.8	0.9
NY Jets	AFC East	6.4	7.2	0.8
Cleveland	AFC North	6.3	7.1	0.8
New Orleans	NFC South	9.7	10.4	0.7

The Steelers are now projected to finish above .500 for the fifth straight season after beating Atlanta.

Arizona claimed their first victory of the season, beating the injury-plagued 49ers on the road with the help of a +5 turnover margin. A five win season (as currently projected) would be Arizona’s worst finish since they went 5-11 in 2012.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 6 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
New Orleans	NFC South	49.7%	61.0%	11.3%
Pittsburgh	AFC North	13.0%	23.2%	10.2%
Houston	AFC South	11.0%	19.2%	8.2%
Minnesota	NFC North	19.3%	27.1%	7.8%
Kansas City	AFC West	80.3%	86.4%	6.1%

The Saints are now in the pole position in an NFC South that looked much tougher coming into the season. The Panthers have the second best odds to win the division at about 26%. Tampa Bay (9%) and Atlanta (5%) round out the division.

Minnesota had a key victory at Philadelphia, increasing their NFC North division win odds to 23%. They’re still far behind the 3-1 Bears, who were on bye last week and have about a 49% chance to win the division.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 6 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Odds Change
Pittsburgh	AFC North	29.3%	44.7%	15.4%
Minnesota	NFC North	35.2%	48.8%	13.6%
New Orleans	NFC South	68.5%	81.7%	13.2%
LA Chargers	AFC West	34.4%	45.5%	11.1%
Houston	AFC South	20.9%	28.9%	8.0%

Steelers fans have reason for hope with 45% odds to make the playoffs, seventh best in an AFC with plenty of parity. There are currently only two teams in the conference with a record of better than 3-2, and 14 of the 16 teams have at least two wins.

The Chargers are just ahead of Pittsburgh at 46% playoff odds. It’s been a trying early season for LAC after entering the year as the favorites in the AFC West. The Chargers don’t play another home game until November 18, so their upcoming stretch of games could be quite impactful.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 6, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 6 games, please check out our premium products: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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