The calendar has turned to August, which means we have just two short months before the Major League Baseball playoffs begin in October. There is just a small five-game MLB slate on tap for Thursday, but nonetheless we have identified two solid player props that we are backing. We look to keep the momentum going from Tuesday’s 3-0 day with one pitcher and one batter prop for today’s card that each pay out odds of +120 or greater.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Thursday, August 1.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Seth Lugo Over 2.5 earned runs (+120)
Seth Lugo started the season on fire with ERAs of 1.97 or better in each of the first two months of the season. However, he finished July with a 4.78 ERA in four starts, and without a complete game with one run allowed against the historically bad Chicago White Sox, Lugo’s July ERA would have sat at 6.75. His swing-and-miss stuff is not as prevalent as it was in the early stages of the season, as he recorded just 19 strikeouts in 26 1/3 July innings, and his career ERA in the second half of the season is nearly a half-run higher than the first half (3.51 compared to 3.03).
Despite these trends, Lugo has a low O/U for number of earned runs, largely because he held these same Detroit Tigers scoreless on three hits over seven innings in an April 26 road start. However, the temperatures in the Midwest back then was not conducive to slugfests, and we expect the warmer weather to help Detroit’s bats this time around.
The Tigers have hit the team total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+5.25 units/17% ROI), and we expect another solid game offensively from them, with Lugo going over his projected earned runs total.
Austin Riley Over 0.5 RBIs (+125)
It has been just two days since the trade deadline, but Miami allowed 11 runs to the Tampa Bay Rays after their mid-week fire sale, and a four-game series against the Marlins should be just what the Atlanta Braves need to kickstart their offense.
Third baseman Austin Riley has just three RBIs over the last seven days, but he is due for some positive regression in that area as he slashed .308/.333/.462 in that span. He was one of two Braves hitters (Orlando Arcia was the other) who played six or more games in that split and batted .308 or better, but Atlanta should bring out the bats against youngster Max Meyer, who is making just his seventh career start. Though Meyer does not have much MLB experience, the Braves should be familiar with his arsenal after facing him on April 13. He has made just one start since then, and Riley reached base twice in three at-bats against Meyer.
The slugger ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in xSLG, barrels, and hard-hit rate, so we are getting a great price to drive in at least one run for the third time in the last four games.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
