2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

March 9, 2020 – by Jason Lisk

Cincinnati winning twice against Wichita State could matter at the bubble (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome to our Bubble Breakdown, where we’ll examine how each team stands as we head toward Selection Sunday. If you want to see where we project every team to be seeded, check out our full Bracketology projections.

And remember, once Selection Sunday hits, we turn our attention to predicting the actual tournament games to help you win your March Madness pools. If you want to see our bracket predictions, remember to go to Bracket Picks 2020 once the field is set.

But let’s get to the Bubble Breakdown. First, some thoughts on how the Committee selects teams and how you can use that info to project the bubble.

The Selection Committee Values “Quality Wins”

The NCAA Selection committee has made two big changes over the past two seasons:

In 2018, they changed how they classified wins and losses on the team sheets. Previously, the sheet grouped games based only on the RPI ranking of the opponent: Top 50, Top 100, etc. In 2018, that switched to organizing results in Quadrants which account for where the game was played.In 2019, they switched from using the RPI to using the NET as the underlying ranking tool for organizing teams. The NET has not been fully explained by the NCAA, but it does appear to be a much better judge of true team strength than the RPI was.

Despite the underlying changes in the ranking system, the 2019 selections showed that the Committee still valued accumulating “good wins” against the top tier of opponents, and still largely forgave “bad losses” as long as they were offset by big wins.

Here are some examples showing how the volume of wins in the top two Quadrants mattered at the bubble:

In 2019, 6 teams were selected as at-large bids with a NET ranking outside the Top 50. They averaged 4.3 Quad 1 Wins, and 11.0 Quad 1+2 Wins. Five of the six had at least a .500 record against Quad 1+2 combined.In 2019, 8 teams were not selected as at-larges and went to the NIT, despite being in the Top 50 in NET rankings. They averaged 2.5 Quad 1 Wins, and 6.5 Quad 1+2 Wins. All 8 of them had losing records against Quad 1+2 combined, often well under .500.

Certainly not every Quadrant 1 win is the same, and wins over the top few teams in the tournament field carry more weight, but the evidence from 2019 followed previous decisions from when the RPI was the organizing tool. Teams that have opportunities–and then get big wins–have an advantage when it comes to at-large selection.

That’s why when summarizing some bubble teams below, we list the overall NET ranking, as well as Quad 1 wins and overall Quad 1 and 2 record.

As of all games played through Sunday March 9th, here is how the Bubble (and Field) shapes up. We’ll go through different categories,   from locks to those that can still get in as an at-large with major help. You can also see our specific bracket predictions for seeding and selection here.

Locks (38)

Entering major conference tournament week, I have 38 teams down as being in the field, whether they earn an auto bid or not. That includes all teams seeded as a No. 9 or better in the latest bracketology post, plus Utah State (auto bid from the Mountain West) and Arizona as No. 10 seeds. (These calculations do not include other auto bids that will be seeded 12 or lower.)

Arizona is the most borderline of the lock calls. They’ve certainly spent much of the last two weeks testing the theory that they are in. They draw Washington in the Pac-12 opener, the team that just beat them at home. But they are still 8-10 against the top two Quadrants and are ranked inside the Top 20 in NET ranking. So I just don’t see them being left out, though the committee could seed them down.

With 10 conference auto-bids represented in this group (one clinched by Utah State, and nine projected) that means that 28 at-large spots, out of the 36 available, are accounted for.

Might Be In Already (1)

One team is close to lock status, but not quite ready to declare it. (Current Net Rankings in parentheses).

Arizona State (53) 5 Quads 1 Wins, 9-11 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Colorado/Washington St. (N)

Arizona State may be in, some bracket projections have them as high as the 8/9 seed area. They can probably absorb a loss to Colorado, though if Washington State advanced that would qualify as a bad loss.

Avoid a Bad Loss and In (3)

Indiana (60) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 9-12 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Nebraska (N)East Tennessee State (41) 1 Quad 1 Win, 3-3 against Quads 1 and 2Xavier (44) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 10-12 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. DePaul (N)

Much has been made of Joe Lunardi putting Indiana in his Last Four In, and Indiana head coach Archie Miller lashing out. But the talking point that Indiana is 9-11 is a non-starter. The committee doesn’t look at conference record and history is full of teams with a losing conference record from the top two conferences that year getting selected. Just last year, Minnesota and Ohio State got in as at-larges with losing records in the Big Ten, and Oklahoma was 7-11 in the Big 12 (and got a 9 seed).

And right now, looking at Indiana’s comparable teams from the recent past by resumé, they make it in the field. (The most similar teams last year were Minnesota (10 seed), Iowa (10 seed), and Oklahoma (9 seed).)

But the loss to Wisconsin on Saturday did throw Indiana into the 11 vs. 14 matchup on the opening day of the Big Ten tournament, against Nebraska. They can’t lose to Nebraska. That’s the type of loss that would put them very much in jeopardy and dependent on other results.

For East Tennessee State, it comes down to the Southern Conference final against Wofford. The bad news is that Furman and UNC-Greensboro’s early losses dropped both in the NET rankings, affecting ETSU’s quadrant records. The good news is that it made an auto bid more likely, and now they just need to go win one more game. A loss to Wofford would put them squarely on the bubble.

Xavier took a gut-punch loss when Kamar Baldwin of Butler hit a game-winning three pointer on Saturday. They still look like favorites to make the field, and just need to avoid a loss to DePaul in the Big East opening round.

Adding in Arizona State, Indiana, Xavier, and East Tennessee State, that moves us to 31 at-larges used (since ETSU is the presumptive auto bid).

That leads us to the true bubble.

2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams (10)

The following 10 teams represent the closest thing to the “bubble” where arguments and cases exist for each making it or being excluded, based on historical committee precedent. As of right now, five of these would make it, pending further bubble shrinkage due to bid thieves.

Texas Tech (22) 3 Quad 1 wins, 7-13 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Texas (N)Wichita State (41) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 9-8 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Memphis/East Carolina (A/N)Richmond (27) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 6-6 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Davidson/La Salle (N)Stanford  (30) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 7-10 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. California (N)Texas (69) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 7-12 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Texas Tech (N)UCLA (76) 6 Quad 1 Wins, 9-10 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Stanford/Cal (N)Cincinnati (51) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 9-6 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. UCF/South Florida (N)NC State (54) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 8-10 against Quads 1 & 2, vs. Pittsburgh/Wake Forest (N)Mississippi State (50) 2 Quad 1 Wins, they 8-9 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Florida/Ole Miss/Georgia (N)Northern Iowa (37) 1 Quad 1 Win, 4-3 against Quads 1 and 2, eliminated from MVC Tourney

Northern Iowa feels like they are in trouble and destined for the NIT, as the teams near the bubble have generally improved their lot in recent weeks.

As for the rest, you have several interesting potential showdown situations.

Texas Tech and Texas meet in the Big 12 tournament, in what feels like a play-in game. The loser could still make it as well, but would be very much at risk;Wichita State, Cincinnati, and Memphis (in the group just below) are all on the same side of the American bracket. The team that advances to the final from that side should be in position to be selected, the others are very much in bubble trouble;Stanford and UCLA will meet in the Pac-12 quarterfinal if Stanford beats California in the opener. That’s another one that feels like an elimination game;Richmond probably needs to advance to the A-10 final to feel safe, as that would potentially give them another win over Rhode Island;NC State needs to win the opener to advance to play Duke in the ACC quarterfinals, and may need to beat them again to get in the field;Mississippi State will likely get Florida in the SEC quarterfinal and also needs a win there.

 

Below the 2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble, But Still Alive (5)

This last group would be out right now. They probably need multiple results. Most, honestly, need to go to their conference final to get in the mix.

Memphis (60) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 8-7 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. East CarolinaPurdue (33) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 9-14 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. RutgersOklahoma State (61) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 9-14 against Quads 1 and 2Tennessee (63) 3 Quad 1 Win, 8-13 against Quads 1 and 2Arkansas (47) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 6-12 against Quads 1 and 2South Carolina (67) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 9-10 against Quads 1 and 2Saint Louis (49) 2 Quad 1 Win, 4-7 against Quads 1 and 2Rhode Island (57) 1 Quad 1 Win, 6-8 against Quads 1 and 2

Memphis can face both Wichita State and Cincinnati on the way to the American Conference Final, and that could double their Quad 1 wins and give them 10 total against the top two quadrants.

Purdue’s problem is that they have 15 losses. They will have 16, then, unless they win the Big Ten tournament. While there are no hard and fast rules on such things, the best guess here is they need 3 wins in the tournament to get back in the discussion.

Oklahoma State needs to win its opener against Iowa State, knock off Kansas and maybe the winner of the Texas Tech/Texas game. Saint Louis can potentially face Dayton in the A-10 semifinal, a must-win for them. Rhode Island needs to get to the final as well, and that may not be enough. The SEC teams listed probably all need to reach the tournament final to be in the bubble discussion as well.

Teams That Need the Auto Bid (Teams in Top 75 in NET Rankings)

This final group includes all teams currently ranked in the Top 75 in the NET who do not appear to have any path to genuine at-large consideration, based on how the Committee has selected teams in the past. That may be because of too many losses, or not enough remaining opportunities for top tier wins.

Minnesota (43) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 6-15 against Quads 1 and 2Alabama (53) 2 Quad 1 Win, 8-12 against Quads 1 and 2Washington (55) 3 Quad 1 Win, 5-13 against Quads 1 and 2Notre Dame (56) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 4-11 against Quads 1 and 2Connecticut (59) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 5-10 against Quads 1 and 2Georgetown (62) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 8-15 against Quads 1 and 2Syracuse (64) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 6-12 against Quads 1 and 2VCU (65) 1 Quad 1 Win, 3-11 against Quads 1 and 2St. John’s (66) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 6-14 against Quads 1 and 2Yale (70) 0 Quad 1 Win, 2-5 against Quads 1 and 2Oregon State (71) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 5-11 against Quads 1 and 2Davidson (73) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 6-8 against Quads 1 and 2Akron (74) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 0-4 against Quads 1 and 2Furman (75) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 2-4 against Quads 1 and 2

As of March 4th

Locks (31)

I have the following 31 teams as “locks” for the tournament. Which means that even if they don’t win another game, their resumé is good enough for selection. Seeding, on the other hand, would be affected by losses.

Conference	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
ACC	Duke	Florida State	Louisville	Virginia
Big 12	Kansas	Baylor	West Virginia
Big Ten	Maryland	Penn State	Ohio State	Iowa
Big Ten	Michigan State	Michigan	Wisconsin	Illinois
Big East	Seton Hall	Creighton	Villanova	Marquette	Butler
Pac-12	Oregon	Colorado	Arizona
SEC	Kentucky	Auburn	LSU
Other	Gonzaga (WCC)	San Diego State (MWC)	Dayton (A-10)	BYU (WCC)	Houston (American)

This group of 31 teams has stayed the same since Monday, with no new additions. Though some teams are close to joining the locks, as we can see in the next category.

With 10 conferences represented in this group, that means that 21 at-large spots, out of the 36 available, have been used so far.

Likely In, Win This Weekend Seals It (5)

These next five teams might have already done enough. One more win should do it for each of them. (Current Net Rankings in parentheses).

Providence (40) 7 Quad 1 Wins, 12-8 against Quads 1 and 2 (but 4 other losses), vs. DePaulUSC (41) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 10-8 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. UCLAFlorida (28) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 9-11 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. KentuckyOklahoma (46) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 10-12 against Quads 1 and 2, at TCUIndiana (52) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 9-11 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Wisconsin

Providence just needs to avoid a bad home loss to DePaul, as they have four other losses outside of the top two Quadrants. USC is close to being called as a lock now. Florida would absolutely guarantee themselves a bid by beating Kentucky, and Indiana would do the same by beating a ranked Wisconsin team. Oklahoma already has five Quad 1 wins and winning a road game at TCU should seal the deal.

Adding all those teams in, that brings us to 26 at-large bids given out, and 10 remaining.

Likely In, But Loss this Weekend Could Be Costly (2)

Arizona State (53) 5 Quads 1 Wins, 9-11 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Washington StateSaint Mary’s (29) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 7-5 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Santa Clara/Pepperdine in WCC Quarterfinal

These two teams are in the projected field now. They really need to just avoid a bad loss at this point. For Arizona State, losing at home to Washington State could be costly, as it would give them their worst loss of the year and give them a four-game losing streak going to the Pac-12 tournament. Saint Mary’s is in the field if they just get to the semifinal against BYU. They have already clinched a winning record against the top two Quadrants, have a NET ranking in the Top 30, and just need to avoid a loss in the quarterfinal.

Adding those two teams in, that gets us to 28 at-large bids, and leaves the Last Four Byes and the Last Four In remaining. In other words, we are now getting to the true bubble.

In For Now, Win Seals It, Loss Puts on Bubble (6)

This group of teams looks to be in the field right now, and they all have key games this weekend. Win them, and they should claim a spot in the tournament. But some of these games are quite difficult, and a lot of these teams will be underdogs to pull it off.

Xavier (42) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 10-11 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. ButlerRutgers (31) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 8-10 against Quads 1 and 2, at PurdueStanford  (27) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 7-9 against Quads 1 and 2, at OregonUCLA (76) 6 Quad 1 Wins, 9-9 against Quads 1 and 2, at USCTexas Tech (22) 3 Quad 1 wins, 7-12 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. KansasEast Tennessee State (41) 1 Quad 1 Win, 3-3 against Quads 1 and 2

Xavier would add their fourth Quad 1 win by beating Butler at home. Rutgers would get their biggest road win of the year by beating Purdue. Stanford is near the cut line, and a big road upset at Oregon would be the type of game that could make (or break) them. UCLA would get their 7th Quad 1 win of the year, and teams like that do not get left out of the tournament very often. Texas Tech finds themselves near the bubble because of close losses in big games. They may be playing to get in the field. A win over Kansas would absolutely do it, while a loss leaves them perhaps needing a win in the Big 12 Tournament.

Finally, East Tennessee State is above the cut line now, but an early loss would be costly, and a loss in the final of the Southern Conference would have them squarely on the bubble. (See Northern Iowa, below.)

This group includes six teams, and one more conference auto bid for now. That moves us to 33 bids, which leaves three remaining. However, the above group is unlikely to go six-for-six, so some of these “In For Now” teams will be dropping down into the following section (“Bubble Teams”) by Sunday night. In fact, four of the five power conference teams playing their regular season finale from this group look like underdogs to win.

2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams (9)

Texas (58) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 6-11 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Oklahoma StatePurdue (36) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 9-13 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. RutgersCincinnati (53) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 8-6 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. TempleWichita State (47) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 9-8 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. TulsaNC State (54) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 9-8 against Quads 1 & 2, vs. Wake ForestNorthern Iowa (37) 1 Quad 1 Win, 4-3 against Quads 1 and 2, eliminated from MVC TourneyMississippi State (52) 2 Quad 1 Wins, they 7-8 against Quads 1 and 2, vs. Ole MissRichmond (44) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 4-6 against Quads 1 and 2, at DuquesneMemphis (60) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 7-6 against Quads 1 and 2, at Houston

These teams are right at or below the cut line. They are vulnerable to bid thieves or other teams from this group jumping up and getting results in the conference tournaments.

Texas is probably in right now, and would stay on the right side of the cut by beating Oklahoma State. Purdue would make a pretty strong case for selection with a win over Rutgers (and directly lower a potential competitor for a spot). Cincinnati and Wichita State are right on the edge of the bubble. Wichita State’s loss at Memphis, and getting swept by Cincinnati, has them just below the Bearcats. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s four Quadrant 3 losses have them sweating things out as well. Memphis could also jump right into this range from the American Conference with a road win at Houston to close the regular season.

For now, NC State is just below the bubble. They can’t change that outlook much this weekend playing Wake Forest at home (though a loss would be devastating). So the Wolfpack are likely heading to the ACC Tournament needing at least one win and maybe two.

Northern Iowa is in trouble. They lost to Drake in the Missouri Valley quarterfinal by 21 points. That is not the impression you want to close with. I list them on the bubble but think they are likely heading to the NIT as a No. 1 or No. 2 Seed.

Mississippi State has work to do, and like NC State, likely can’t change much with a home win over Ole Miss. It looks like they might need to get a quarterfinal win over someone like LSU or Auburn (depending on how the bracket finalizes) to move up the pecking order.

Richmond can still get in the mix by winning at Duquesne to close the year (a Quad 2 result) and then advancing to the A-10 Final, but a loss to close the season would likely bump them down to needing the auto-bid.

Below the 2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble, But Still Alive (5)

This last group would be out right now. They probably need multiple results. But because of their remaining schedule and likely opponents in the conference tournaments, they at least have a chance to enter the bubble discussion.

Tennessee (67) 1 Quad 1 Win, 7-12 against Quads 1 and 2Arkansas (45) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 5-11 against Quads 1 and 2South Carolina (63) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 7-10 against Quads 1 and 2Alabama (40) 1 Quad 1 Win, 8-11 against Quads 1 and 2Oklahoma State (68) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 8-14 against Quads 1 and 2Georgetown (59) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 8-13 against Quads 1 and 2

We should just call this the SEC Invitational. All of these teams could get into the mix with a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, likely needs to win at Texas and then make a run to the Big 12 Final to be in the mix. Georgetown would likely need to do the same in the Big East.

Non-Major Schools That Look Like They Need the Auto-Bid (4)

These are schools that can’t be completely ruled out for at-large consideration. Because they don’t play in the power conferences, though, their chances of getting additional key wins just aren’t there. So they most likely need an automatic bid.

Saint Louis (54) 2 Quad 1 Win, 4-7 against Quads 1 and 2Rhode Island (57) 1 Quad 1 Win, 6-8 against Quads 1 and 2Utah State (38) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 4-6 against Quads 1 and 2Tulsa (75) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 6-7 against Quads 1 and 2Stephen F. Austin (80), 1 Quad 1 Wins, 1-2 against Quads 1 and 2

Of this group, Saint Louis and Rhode Island would need to end up on the same side of the Atlantic 10 bracket as Dayton (allowing them to face and beat the Flyers before the final) to even be in the mix for an at large bid. Utah State likely needs to beat San Diego State in the MWC Final, something that looks a bit more likely now that they get to face #11 Wyoming in the semifinal. Tulsa could very well be the #1 Seed in the American Tourney, but do not have an at-large resumé so far. They could get there by winning at Wichita State on Sunday, and then advancing to the American Conference Final. But a loss to the Shockers almost certainly puts them in auto-bid or bust mode.

Stephen F. Austin does have the big win at Duke, but would otherwise be an unprecedented at-large selection given their low ranking in the NET and no other wins in the top two quadrants.

Teams That Need the Auto Bid (Teams in Top 75 in NET Rankings)

This final group includes all teams currently ranked in the Top 75 in the NET who do not appear to have any path to genuine at-large consideration, based on how the Committee has selected teams in the past. That may be because of too many losses, or not enough remaining opportunities for top tier wins.

Minnesota (45) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 6-15 against Quads 1 and 2Notre Dame (58) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 4-11 against Quads 1 and 2Connecticut (61) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 5-11 against Quads 1 and 2Washington (62) 2 Quad 1 Win, 4-13 against Quads 1 and 2VCU (64) 0 Quad 1 Win, 2-10 against Quads 1 and 2Yale (66) 0 Quad 1 Win, 2-4 against Quads 1 and 2Syracuse (67) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 6-11 against Quads 1 and 2Furman (68) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 2-4 against Quads 1 and 2St. John’s (69) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 5-14 against Quads 1 and 2Liberty (70) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 1-1 against Quads 1 and 2Oregon State (72) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 5-11 against Quads 1 and 2Akron (73) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 0-4 against Quads 1 and 2Georgia Tech (74) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 6-13 Quads 1 and 2

2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown, Monday, March 2nd

As of all games played through Sunday, March 1st, here is how the Bubble (and Field) shapes up. We’ll go through different categories of teams, from locks to those that can still get in as an at-large with major help.

Locks (31)

I have the following 31 teams as “locks” for the tournament. Which means that even if they don’t win another game, their resumé is good enough for selection. Seeding, on the other hand, would be affected by losses.

Conference	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
ACC	Duke	Florida State	Louisville	Virginia
Big 12	Kansas	Baylor	West Virginia
Big Ten	Maryland	Penn State	Ohio State	Iowa
Big Ten	Michigan State	Michigan	Wisconsin	Illinois
Big East	Seton Hall	Creighton	Villanova	Marquette	Butler
Pac-12	Oregon	Colorado	Arizona
SEC	Kentucky	Auburn	LSU
Other	Gonzaga (WCC)	San Diego State (MWC)	Dayton (A-10)	BYU (WCC)	Houston (American)

Over the last week, Houston, Illinois, LSU, Virginia, and Wisconsin moved onto this list.  Arizona has me moderately worried about calling them a lock as they keep losing close games, but we’ll stick with it (They could certainly drop to the 10 or 11 seed line if they keep this up). The Wildcats should make such discussion moot with a home win over Washington State or Washington this week.

These 31 teams come from ten different conferences. If we assume the automatic bids in these conferences are all won by a team listed above, that means we are accounting for 21 of the available 36 at-large spots with teams considered locks.

Near-Locks (4)

These four teams might have already done enough. One more win probably does it. I’m just not quite ready to lock it in yet, as losing all remaining games could at least put them in the bubble discussion. (Current Net Rankings in parentheses).

Florida (33) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 8-11 against Quads 1 and 2Providence (44) 7 Quad 1 Wins, 11-8 against Quads 1 and 2USC (39) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 10-8 against Quads 1 and 2Oklahoma (42) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 10-11 against Quads 1 and 2

Florida had an uneven week, beating LSU at home then losing at Tennessee. But that LSU win moves them close to locking up a bid. One more win this week either at Georgia or at home against Kentucky would do it. Lose both and they at least have to worry about getting a result in the SEC tournament.

Providence has one of those weird profiles that almost always gets seeded higher than you think. They have four losses outside the top two quadrants, but are 7-8 in Quad 1, including wins at Villanova, Butler, and Marquette. They just need to not lose out (which, if it happened, would drop them to 17-15 overall). With home games against DePaul and Xavier this week, they should find a win.

USC took a big leap from bubble status to near-lock in a week. That’s what happens when you beat two likely tournament teams in Arizona and Arizona State. They also only have one regular season game remaining (UCLA), so even losing that and in the tournament would have them sitting with at least a .500 record against the top two quadrants, a 21-11 overall record, and likely a NET ranking still in the Top 50.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, had a great week as well with wins over Texas Tech and West Virginia, and get to host Texas and then go to TCU. One win and they are certainly in.

Adding those four moves us to 25 at-larges accounted for overall.

Likely In (4)

For this category, these are teams that are in if they hit projections, and probably in even if they slightly underachieve down the closing stretch. What they can’t do is completely collapse and underperform by multiple games.

Saint Mary’s (32) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 7-4 against Quads 1 and 2Arizona State (50) 5 Quads 1 Wins, 10-10 against Quads 1 and 2Indiana (52) 6 Quad 1 Wins, 8-9 against Quads 1 and 2Texas Tech (23) 3 Quad 1 wins, 7-11 against Quads 1 and 2

Arizona State went 0-2 on the Los Angeles road trip, which prevented them from locking in their spot. They should get in if they can just hold serve now at home as both Washington schools visit. What they can’t do is lose both.

Texas Tech went from near-lock to likely in status with a rough week where they lost at Oklahoma and then at home to Texas. Next up: at Baylor and Kansas at home. (Gulp.) If they win one of those they are an absolute lock. But if they lose those tough games they will head to Kansas City for the Big 12 tournament at 18-13, with a four-game losing streak, and looking at a matchup against Oklahoma/Texas/West Virginia.

Indiana also went 0-2 in the last week, keeping them from locking things down for a bid. They get two home games, against Minnesota and Wisconsin, to end the regular season and just need to get a win.

Adding in these teams moves us to 29 at-larges. That leaves only 7 potential at-large spots open and unaccounted for.

In For Now (6)

This group of teams looks likely to make the field … if they hit current projections for wins and losses in remaining games. But if they underperform down the stretch at all, they are in danger of falling to the tier below.

Xavier (45) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 10-10 against Quads 1 and 2Wichita State (47) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 9-7 against Quads 1 and 2UCLA (75) 6 Quad 1 Wins, 9-9 against Quads 1 and 2Northern Iowa (37) 1 Quad 1 Win, 5-3 against Quads 1 and 2East Tennessee State (41) 1 Quad 1 Win, 3-3 against Quads 1 and 2NC State (54) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 9-8 against Quads 1 & 2

It was a big Sunday for both Xavier and Wichita State to move above the bubble cutline. Xavier got a big win over potential bubble team Georgetown on the road. Wichita State had a huge comeback at SMU that may have saved their season.

UCLA continued their incredible run by sweeping Arizona and Arizona State and now are projected in the field. You can see a more detailed breakdown on how the committee has treated teams with UCLA’s profile here.

It was a glass-half-full/glass-half-empty week for both Northern Iowa and East Tennessee State. Both went 2-0 to finish up their regular seasons with a conference title, so they avoided any costly losses that could have sunk any chance for an at-large. On the other hand, a lot of “bubble” teams had great weeks. UCLA, USC, Oklahoma, Providence, Xavier, and Texas all made big moves that have tightened the margin for error.

And the unfortunate truth is that with the Quadrant system and the committee emphasis on those records in the top two tiers, these two are at the mercy of slight ranking changes if they don’t secure the auto bids. Take East Tennessee State, who are now 1-2 against Quadrant 1 and 3-3 against the top two Quadrants. That’s the type of mid-major “resumé” that has just missed in recent years.

But they are just six slots, combined, from three teams moving up a Quadrant and affecting four games. UNC-Greensboro (No. 78), Little Rock (No. 136), and Western Carolina (No. 137) are near the Top 75 or Top 135 (for Quad 2 road games). With slight movement there, they could be 2-2 against Quad 1 and 6-3 against the top two quads. That’s an at-large resumé. (And yes, this is all very dumb, but also very real.)

With ETSU and UNI currently projected as auto bids, that means the other four teams add on and make it 33 at-larges. That leaves three spots for now at the true bubble, targeted for Dayton play-in games.

2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams (9)

These teams are truly on the bubble. Last week, the bubble was mostly teams that would get in. But with more results and some teams leapfrogging, now the bubble has shrunk, and most of these teams would be out today. You’ll see that a lot of these teams are from the non-Power Six conferences, and that’s always a dangerous place to be sitting this late, as the big boys still have chances to rack up big wins.

Stanford  (31) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 7-8 against Quads 1 and 2Rutgers (35) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 7-10 against Quads 1 and 2Texas (58) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 6-11 against Quads 1 and 2Mississippi State (52) 2 Quad 1 Wins, they 7-8 against Quads 1 and 2Cincinnati (53) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 8-6 against Quads 1 and 2Rhode Island (43) 1 Quad 1 Win, 7-7 against Quads 1 and 2Richmond (48) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 4-6 against Quads 1 and 2Memphis (60) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 7-6 against Quads 1 and 2Utah State (38) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 4-6 against Quads 1 and 2

Stanford is the one bubble team that moved up slightly to the correct side of the bubble by going 2-0 including a home win over Colorado. You might ask why they are still there, despite being rated so highly in the NET (No. 28). Well, it’s mostly how the wins are distributed. They are 0-5 in their five toughest matchups by opponent NET ranking + H/A/N consideration. Their best road win, by opponent NET ranking, is at No. 70 Washington. They get two road games this week, against the Oregon schools, and adding a road victory would help their cause.

Rutgers, as noted last week, has the same road issue. In fact, their best road win is at Nebraska. They came up just short at Penn State last week but the Committee has never given credit for close losses. With Maryland and at Purdue this week, Rutgers cannot afford an 0-2 finish.

Texas, meanwhile, moves into the final spot and jumps several bubble teams by winning against West Virginia and Texas Tech. A major showdown with Oklahoma looms this week. Texas’ 6-11 record against the top two quads is worse than other bubble teams, but their Quad 1 games have been way tougher than the typical bubble team. They are 0-4 against Baylor and Kansas, games that most bubble teams would lose at a high rate. They have a solid record otherwise and have no losses outside the top two quads, something that most bubble teams cannot claim.

Mississippi State and Cincinnati are just out, with Mississippi State moving up and the Bearcats dropping out of the field after losing to Houston. Rhode Island, meanwhile, took a big loss at home to Saint Louis to drop out as well. Richmond and Utah State are on the wrong side and have little opportunity to improve compared to the big boys. Rhode Island now needs to beat Dayton at home, so at least they have a big opportunity.

Just Below the 2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble (5)

This last group would be out right now, based on their current projection. But if they can outperform our current predictions by a game or two, they can jump into the bubble and possibly move into the field.

Purdue (36) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 8-13 against Quads 1 and 2Georgetown (59) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 8-13 against Quads 1 and 2South Carolina (63) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 7-10 against Quads 1 and 2Saint Louis (66) 2 Quad 1 Win, 4-6 against Quads 1 and 2Clemson (73) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 8-11 against Quads 1 and 2

These teams have some work today now, but could still realistically make a run. Purdue got the key win against Indiana to stay alive. They realistically need to win out this week at Iowa and vs. Rutgers to jump in the field (and potentially move around Rutgers directly).

Georgetown took a costly loss to Xavier at home and has a four-game losing streak. The good news, with games against Creighton and Villanova to close the season, is that they can add big results and jump back. The bad news is those are tough games and a loss may doom them to needing the auto bid.

South Carolina and Clemson are both lingering just below the bubble. Clemson is here because they beat Florida State to finish with wins against each of the top three teams in the ACC. But they have to win out this week to maintain any slim hope of an at-large.

Saint Louis jumped into the bubble talk, and isn’t far below Rhode Island and Richmond in the pecking order heading to the final week. Their likely path to getting on the right side of the bubble now involves beating Dayton in an A-10 semifinal matchup.

Still Alive, But Need to Make a Move (9)

This large group of teams is holding on to slim hope. It’s a group that already shrunk since last week. Teams on this list are those that could at least get in the bubble talk by getting to a conference semifinal or final and not losing until then. More realistically, almost all of these teams will be going into the NIT field.

Arkansas (45) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 5-11 against Quads 1 and 2Alabama (40) 1 Quad 1 Win, 8-11 against Quads 1 and 2Tennessee (67) 1 Quad 1 Win, 7-12 against Quads 1 and 2Minnesota (49) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 7-14 against Quads 1 and 2Notre Dame (57) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 4-10 against Quads 1 and 2Syracuse (70) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 5-11 against Quads 1 and 2Tulsa (83) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 5-7 against Quads 1 and 2Oklahoma State (68) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 8-14 against Quads 1 and 2St. John’s (74) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 5-13 against Quads 1 and 2

Need the Auto Bid (Teams in Top 75 in NET Rankings)

This final group includes all teams currently ranked in the Top 75 in the NET who do not appear to have any path to genuine at-large consideration, based on how the Committee has selected teams in the past. That may be because of too many losses, or not enough remaining opportunities for top tier wins. This group should grow by the time all the conference tournaments tip-off.

VCU (56) 0 Quad 1 Win, 3-10 against Quads 1 and 2Connecticut (61) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 4-10 against Quads 1 and 2Yale (62) 1 Quad 1 Win, 1-4 against Quads 1 and 2Liberty (64) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 1-1 against Quads 1 and 2Furman (65) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 2-4 against Quads 1 and 2Washington (69) 1 Quad 1 Win, 3-14 against Quads 1 and 2Davidson (71) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 5-7 Quads 1 and 2Oregon State (72) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 4-12 against Quads 1 and 2

Bubble Breakdown, February 25th

As of Monday, February 24th, here is how the Bubble (and Field) shapes up. We’ll go through different categories of teams, from locks to those that can still get in as an at-large with major help.

Locks (26)

I have the following 26 teams as “locks” for the tournament. Which means that even if they don’t win another game, their resumé is good enough for selection. Seeding, on the other hand, would be affected by losses.

Conference	School	School	School	School	School	School
ACC	Duke	Louisville	Florida State
Big 12	Kansas	Baylor	West Virginia
Big Ten	Maryland	Penn State	Michigan State	Michigan	Ohio State	Iowa
Big East	Creighton	Seton Hall	Villanova	Marquette	Butler
Pac-12	Oregon	Colorado	Arizona
SEC	Kentucky	Auburn
Other	Gonzaga (WCC)	San Diego St (MWC)	Dayton (A-10)	BYU (WCC)

Our automated bracketology calculations agree; every team on this list is given at least a 99% chance of making the tournament except for Penn State (97%).

These 26 teams come from nine different conferences. If we assume the automatic bids in these conferences are all won by a team listed above, that means we are accounting for 17 of the available 36 at-large spots with teams considered locks.

Near-Locks (5)

These five teams might have already done enough. One more win probably does it. I’m just not quite ready to lock it in yet, as an unexpected losing streak could at least put them in the bubble discussion. (Current Net Rankings in parentheses).

Texas Tech (16) 3 Quad 1 wins, 7-9 against Quads 1 and 2Houston (24) 2 Quad 1 wins, 8-7 against Quads 1 and 2Wisconsin (29) 7 Quad 1 wins, 10-9 against Quads 1 and 2LSU (30) 4 Quad 1 wins, 11-7 against Quads 1 and 2Illinois (35) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 8-8 against Quads 1 and 2

Texas Tech has the best NET ranking, but the current losing record against the top two Quads means they are not quite a lock yet. Wisconsin and Illinois have almost done enough in a tough Big Ten, with plenty of Quad 1 wins. Houston just needs to avoid bad losses and keep the NET ranking in the Top 30, while LSU has 4 Quad 1 wins and an excellent 7-1 record in Quad 2.

These five teams include one more conference (Houston from the American Athletic), and four more potential at-large spots. That moves us to 21 at-larges overall.

Likely In (6)

For this category, these are teams that are in if they hit projections, and probably in even if they slightly underachieve down the closing stretch. What they can’t do is completely collapse and underperform by multiple games.

Saint Mary’s (32) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 7-4 against Quads 1 and 2Florida (33) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 8-10 against Quads 1 and 2Arizona State (41) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 9-8 against Quads 1 and 2Virginia (51) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 9-6 against Quads 1 and 2NC State (53) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 9-7 against Quads 1 and 2Indiana (52) 6 Quad 1 Wins, 8-9 against Quads 1 and 2

Saint Mary’s has only the games at Santa Clara, at Gonzaga, and the WCC tournament. As a result, they may just need to win the Santa Clara game. Even losses to Gonzaga and then BYU in the tournament would still leave them with a winning record against the top two quadrants. Some might be surprised to see Virginia and NC State. But both have good records against Quad 1 and overall winning records against the top two quadrants. Indiana, meanwhile, has rebounded and while they cannot lose out, if they simply go 2-3 down the stretch against a tough schedule, they should be in.

Adding in these teams moves us to 27 at-larges, with 9 potential spots remaining.

In For Now (4)

This group of teams looks likely to make the field … if they hit current projections for wins and losses in remaining games. But if they underperform down the stretch at all, they are in danger of falling to the tier below.

Rutgers (34) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 7-9 against Quads 1 and 2East Tennessee State (39) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 3-2 against Quads 1 and 2Northern Iowa (46) 1 Quad 1 Win, 5-3 against Quads 1 and 2Providence (48) 7 Quad 1 Wins, 10-8 against Quads 1 and 2

East Tennessee State and Northern Iowa can absolutely get at-larges even if they lose in their conference finals. Both probably need to keep the NET ranking in the Top 50, and winning the last two games before their conference tourneys would help an at-large case. Both are likely to finish with winning records against the top two Quads, which means they will at least be on the bubble if they do not secure the auto bid.

Providence has the overall top wins, but is close enough to .500 overall that they can’t be fully comfortable yet. Rutgers has only 3 Quad 1 Wins in the Big Ten, because they simply haven’t won on the road. In fact, they have only one win all year in a road/neutral game (at Nebraska). So while they have been a great story, they aren’t safe yet for that reason.

Two of these four are currently slotted as auto bids (East Tennessee State and Northern Iowa), so counting the two others as at-large bids moves us to 29 spots taken so far. If either ETSU or UNI moves into the at-large pool that potentially shrinks the bubble.

2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams (10)

These teams are truly on the bubble. With seven bids remaining, the majority right now would be in. But with potential bubble shrinkage thanks to bid thieves, it’s probably closer to a true 50/50 toss-up for these teams.

Rhode Island (37) 1 Quad 1 Win, 6-6 against Quads 1 and 2Cincinnati (54) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 8-5 against Quads 1 and 2Xavier (44) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 9-10 against Quads 1 and 2USC (47) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 8-8 against Quads 1 and 2Wichita State (43) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 9-8 against Quads 1 and 2Oklahoma (55) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 8-11 against Quads 1 and 2Georgetown (58) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 9-12 against Quads 1 and 2Stanford  (31) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 6-8 against Quads 1 and 2Richmond (49) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 4-6 against Quads 1 and 2Utah State (38) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 4-6 against Quads 1 and 2

For now, I would predict Rhode Island, Wichita State, Xavier, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, USC, and Georgetown in before any shrinkage at the bubble. Stanford, Utah State, and Richmond all have only two Quad 1 wins and a losing record overall against the top two Quads, which is often the recipe for disappointment on Selection Sunday. Those teams need to find quality wins.

Just Below the 2020 NCAA Tournament Bubble (8)

This last group would be out right now, based on their current projection. But if they can outperform our current predictions by a game or two, they can move into the field.

Alabama (40) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 6-10 against Quads 1 and 2Memphis (61) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 7-5 against Quads 1 and 2Mississippi State (57) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 6-8 against Quads 1 and 2UCLA (76) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 7-9 against Quads 1 and 2South Carolina (63) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 7-9 against Quads 1 and 2Purdue (36) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 7-13 against Quads 1 and 2Minnesota (42) 5 Quad 1 Wins, 7-13 against Quads 1 and 2Texas (66) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 5-11 against Quads 1 and 2

Alabama and Memphis could use big wins down the stretch. UCLA has gotten them lately, winning at both Arizona and Colorado in the last month. The Bruins’ problem is a currently-too-low overall NET and losing record against the top two quads. They aren’t too far, though, from officially moving to the bubble and have a profile similar to St. John’s last year (last at-large in the field). Purdue and Minnesota face a similar problem: lots of top tier losses in the Big Ten. Both can still get an at-large but need to go on win streaks.

South Carolina and Mississippi State are part of a big SEC contingent on the wrong side of the bubble. Texas has moved into striking range with a three-game win streak.

Still Alive, But Need to Make a Move (13)

This large group of teams is holding on to slim hope. In fact, for some of them, the odds are less than 1%. But based on their future schedules, there is at least a path to at-large consideration if they can pull off some upsets. Half this list may be moved to the “Need the Auto Bid” Group by next week. This group should gradually shrink in size as we approach Selection Sunday.

Arkansas (45) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 4-10 against Quads 1 and 2UNC-Greensboro (62) 1 Quad 1 Win, 3-4 against Quads 1 and 2Clemson (74) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 7-10 against Quads 1 and 2Tennessee (64) 1 Quad 1 Win, 6-11 against Quads 1 and 2Notre Dame (56) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 3-9 against Quads 1 and 2Syracuse (67) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 4-11 against Quads 1 and 2Oregon State (69) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 4-10 against Quads 1 and 2Tulsa (81) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 5-7 against Quads 1 and 2Utah (80) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 8-9 against Quads 1 and 2Oklahoma State (69) 2 Quad 1 Wins, 8-14 against Quads 1 and 2St. John’s (70) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 5-12 against Quads 1 and 2Saint Louis (72) 1 Quad 1 Win, 3-5 against Quads 1 and 2Virginia Tech (84) 3 Quad 1 Wins, 5-9 against Quads 1 and 2

Arkansas leads this group. Proponents for Arkansas’ case may point to Isaiah Joe’s absence and the team going 1-5. However, based on recent cases like Notre Dame playing without All-American candidate Bonzie Colson in 2018, the evidence that the committee will completely forgive results at the bubble and imagine hypothetical records is unconvincing.

Based on actual results, Arkansas needs some big wins that may only come in the SEC tournament. Most of the teams on this list need to make significant runs starting now to remain in consideration.

Need the Auto Bid (Teams in Top 75 in NET Rankings)

This final group includes all teams currently ranked in the Top 75 in the NET who do not appear to have any path to genuine at-large consideration, based on how the Committee has selected teams in the past. That may be because of too many losses, or not enough remaining opportunities for top tier wins.

Liberty (50) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 1-1 against Quads 1 and 2VCU (59) 1 Quad 1 Win, 2-9 against Quads 1 and 2Yale (60) 1 Quad 1 Win, 1-4 against Quads 1 and 2Washington (65) 1 Quad 1 Win, 3-13 against Quads 1 and 2Connecticut (71) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 5-10 against Quads 1 and 2DePaul (73) 4 Quad 1 Wins, 5-12 against Quads 1 and 2Akron (75) 0 Quad 1 Wins, 0-4 against Quads 1 and 2

If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you! Twitter Facebook